Winter Sports are Disappearing

The world is becoming warmer every year and the skiing season is continuously decreasing. Eventually, the ski resorts will not be able to afford the required amount of man-made snow to run their resort. At its current pace of global warming, most ski resorts will disappear by 2090 except for the resorts in high elevation.  

By 2050, Skiing sites open by Christmas Holiday will drop down to the range of 25 to 35 percent depending on the rate of greenhouse gas emission.  By 2090, the percentage of open sites will be as low as 10 percent (Brown). 

Figure 1. Percentile of Skiing Resort Opening by Christmas Holiday (Brown);

The abbreviation, RCP seems complex and too scientific. However, but it is not difficult to have a basic understanding of the term. RCP stands for Representative Concentration Pathway. Lower RCP simply means more effort to reduce GHG emissions.

                                  RCP 8.5: No regulation. Emission rises throughout the 21^st Century.
                                  RCP 6.0: GHG Emission peak around 2080.
                                  RCP 4.5: GHG Emission peak around 2040.
                                  RCP 2.6: Major climate policies. GHG Emission peak by 2020.

According to the study done by NOAA, by 2090, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, ski season length will dramatically decrease in most US regions with the current rate of increase in GHG emission (Scott).  

Figure 2. Percent change in ski-season length by 2090 with (no regulation)RCP 8.5 (Scott).

Uncomfortable Truth: Climate Change

A number of people doubt the fact that climate change is caused by humans because of their certain beliefs. Do you believe that there is no consensus between climate scientists on global warming? Do you believe that warming is just a natural change in the weather? If so, you have been misinformed.

Consensus Exists

Currently, there is a huge consensus between scientists. About 97% of climate scientists claim that humans are causing global warming (Skeptical Science). The consensus is especially higher between scientists with higher expertise in climate change.

Figure 3,4. top: Studies done by different authors on consensus on human-caused global warming.
bottom: Scientific Consensus vs Expertise in climate science  (Skeptical Science).

Weather Change: Ice ages and warmer interglacial periods

Figure 5. Temperature Change over a million years (Climate Concerns)

As many people know, the Earth goes through a series of ice ages and warmer interglacial periods. However, we must know that there is a direct correlation between CO₂ level and temperature change.

Figure 6. Comparison between CO₂ level and temperature change 

(Changes in the Carbon Cycle)

The extreme correlation between CO₂ level and temperature change can be seen over the past 800,000 years. This implies that Temperature is going to rise if we increase the level of CO₂.

Take a look at the graph below to find out the current level of CO₂.

Figure 7. CO₂ level past 800,000 years (NASA: GLOBAL CLMITE CHANGE)

The current level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is higher than at any time in the past 800,000 years (NASA: GLOBAL CLMITE CHANGE). We are going into an unknown region where we could have possibly created an unprecedented and irreversible change to Earth’s climate. However, the CO₂ level will continue to increase even from the current level at 400 ppm. 

Figure 8. Change in CO₂ level by 2100 (Future of Climate Change)

Above chart shows the change in CO₂ level with different RCPs. RCP 8.5: Without any effort to make a change, the CO₂ level will hit higher than 1200 ppm by the end of the 21^st century and continue to increase, causing an enormous effect on earth’s temperature (Future of Climate Change). 1200 ppm is four times higher than the maximum CO₂ level in the past 800,000 years. RCP 4.5: With some effort, we will be able to keep the level of CO₂ of around 600 ppm, which is only about 200 ppm higher than the current level (Future of Climate Change). It may not seem low enough, but it is one of the best options that we have at hand.

Figure 9, 10. Change in Ski Season by 2090: (top)RCP 4.5 and (bottom)RCP 8.5

If we reduce GHG emission as a nation and as a world, 

we can still minimize the temperature changes and save our winter sports.

Works Cited

1.      Brown, Julie. “Climate Study Suggests Skiing Is On a Short Leash.” POWDER, 20 June 2017, https://www.powder.com/stories/climate-change/climate-change-study-2090/. Accessed 9 June 2019.

2.      Scott, Michon. “Climate & skiing.” Climate.gov, 19 Nov. 2018, https://www.climate.gov/news-features/climate-and/climate-skiing. Accessed 9 June 2019.

3.      Wobus, Cameron, et al. “Projected climate change impacts on skiing and snowmobiling: A case study of the United States.” Global Environmental Change, Volume 45, July 2017, https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378016305556.

4.      “The 97% consensus on global warming.” Skeptical Science, 2016, https://skepticalscience.com/global-warming-scientific-consensus.htm. Accessed 9 June 2019.

5.      “Three Million years of Climate Change.” Climate Concerns, 7 Dec. 2014, https://oz4caster.wordpress.com/2014/12/07/three-million-years-of-climate-change/. Accessed 9 June 2019.

6.      “Graphics: The relentless rise of carbon dioxide.” NASA: GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE, https://climate.nasa.gov/climate_resources/24/graphic-the-relentless-rise-of-carbon-dioxide/. Accessed 9 June 2019.

7.      “Changes in the Carbon Cycle.” NASA: earth observatory, 16 June 2011, https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/features/CarbonCycle/page4.php. Accessed 9 June 2019.

8.      “Future of Climate Change.” EPA: United States Environmental Protection Agency, https://19january2017snapshot.epa.gov/climate-change-science/future-climate-change_.html#main-content. Accessed 9 June 2019.